I watched the first semi-final of the 2011 Rugby World Cup this afternoon with a couple of students from the HKIEd rugby team. The Rugby World Cup is good like that in that it provides opportunities to have casual time with these students to build relationships with them. Come next week, there should be quite a crowd of them coming around to watch the final and have a BBQ afterwards.
I often find myself analysing things unintentionally and so this post is going to cover some of the patterns that I have noticed about the Rugby World Cup over the years.
A Small Power Bloc
There have only ever been five finalists in the Rugby World Cup in all history (New Zealand, France, Australia, England, and South Africa), and with this year’s final being between France and either Australia or New Zealand, that won’t be changing this time. Now this is perhaps not as damning a statistic as might be thought. From 1982 until 2006 the FIFA World Cup finals were contested by only Italy, Germany, Argentina, Brazil and France. Where the concentration of power is really made evident is in the the amount of times these teams have lost to a team outside of this small power bloc. Since Wales beat England and Australia in the inaugural Rugby World Cup in 1987, none of these five teams lost to a team outside of this power bloc until Argentina beat France in 2007. Which has since been followed up by Ireland beating Australia and Tonga beating France.
An Old Boys Club
There is another team that has never made the final that until 1987 had never lost to a team outside of the five aforementioned finalists and that was Scotland. In the early years of the competition they probably deserved to be treated as an equal to the likes of France and England. However in recent years they have faded badly, but still kept their record until they lost to Argentina in the Quarter-finals in 2007. Indeed Scotland probably had the potential to make more than the one semifinal if they could have avoided a nasty habit of meting New Zealand in the quarter-finals (1987, 1995, 1999, 2007). OK, they were never going to be good enough in 1999 and 2007, but prior to 1999 outisde of their quarter-final losses to New Zealand they only had a draw and a three point loss to France and the loss to England in the 1991 semifinal to blot their record.
Even Ireland and Wales, the other two of the eight major traditional rugby playing countries have a pretty strong record against teams from outside of this Old Boys Network.
The Up-and-Comers
In fact there now are only four teams from outside of this group that have beaten one of them in a Rugby World Cup game. And only two of them have done it more than once.
Argentina would have been the first team that many would have picked at the start of the Rugby World Cup era to make this breakthrough, but they massively underachieved in their first three tournaments, with only one win against Italy in 1987 to show for their efforts. However in 1999 they made their first win against one of the traditional powerhouses – a play-off against Ireland to make the quarter-finals. They weren’t able to repeat this in 2003, losing to Ireland in pool play, but in 2007 beat Ireland and France in pool play and then Scotland in the quarter-final and France (again) in the play-off match to become the first team from outside of the traditional nations to make the semi-finals.
However first blood to beating the traditional nations goes to Samoa who in 1991 beat Wales and also pushed the eventual champions Australia extremely close in a 6-3 loss. They were able to follow that up with another win over Wales in 1999. Wales repeated their fragility to Pacific Island opposition in 2007 when they lost to Fiji, the third team to win against one of the old boys, and Tonga became the third team to make the grade when they beat France in pool play in this year’s tournament.
So, Global or Not?
So what is the lay of the land now? Since Wales beat England and Australia in 1987, when Wales was a lot stronger than they have been over the interim (although they may be returning to a position of strength now), and England was not as strong as they currently are, only France out of the five finalists have lost to a team outside of this group of five, so the power does still remain remarkably centralised. What is more, the eight traditional countries have lost to outside countries a total of eight times in the history of the tournament – a shade over once per tournament. And so far it is only Argentina and the three Pacific Island nations that have achieved such a win.
Looking forward
Realistically, the finalists for the next two to three tournaments are going to come from the eight traditional countries. Ireland and Wales have the potential to make a final, but a semi-final would appear to be the high-water mark for Argentina and the Pacific Nations in the foreseeable future.
What is more, is that it is hard to predict a quarter-finalist coming from outside of these twelve nations. The only quarter-finalist from outside of these twelve was Canada in 1991 when they beat Fiji and Romania (and put up a good fight against France) to make the quarters. Since South Africa returned to international rugby in 1992, there is precious little opportunity for a country to advance to the quarters unless they can beat one of the eight traditional nations, plus one of these four at the next level to boot. This is evidenced by Tonga’s failure to make the quarters this year despite beating France. Even Italy, who are probably the best of the rest have only won eight games in 12 years of competing in the Six Nations, five of which have come against Scotland (two against Wales and one this year against the French, whose inconsistent 2011 record is going to include a World Cup final and losses to two teams that started the year ranked 12th and 17th.) It is hard, though not impossible, to see Italy who have only once had more than one win in the Six Nations, and only ever one away win in the Six Nations, as a quarter-finalist. Beyond that, it is all pipe-dreams for the other nations to get that far. This is no reason to be discouraged though. Pele famously predicted that we would have an African winner of the FIFA World Cup by the year 2000. So far, no African team has made it past the quarter-finals. But as of last year, they have come within an intentional handball and a penalty shootout of making it to the semis, so we can be confident that given enough time there will be progress. We just need to be realistic about the pace of it.
So why do we have 20 teams in a tournament if realistically seven of them are only there to make up the numbers? Some say that the opportunity to play these teams is the only way they can improve. I think that the tournament would be poorer if it had no representation from Asia or North America and I enjoy that these nations help the tournament to be a true Rugby World Cup.